M eeting with Vladimir Putin in Uzbekistan on Friday, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi offered a tentative condemnation of Russia's war on Ukraine: "Excellency," he addressed Putin, "I know today’s time is not a time for war and we have talked to you many times over the phone on the subject."
As cautious as that statement might be, it has nevertheless been received by some sanguine Western analysts as a major break with Moscow. And that would be a big development — India has long prioritized its very close relationship with Russia.
But in fact, this changes nothing.
Although Modi might throw out a few scraps of rhetorical concern, the nuts and bolts of his foreign and economic policy remain firmly footed in Russia's corner. Of concern to U.S. interests, Modi has continued in this vein of Russia-first cooperation, even as Washington has recently extended extraordinary new support to New Delhi.
In October, for example, the U.S. Army will train alongside its Indian counterpart very close to India's highly contested border with China. This action is guaranteed to infuriate China and is thus a major show of support to Modi. It comes even as Modi's governing party has utterly failed to deal with rampant sexual violence against Indian girls of the lower caste. The Biden administration has also granted Indian military attaches unescorted access to the Pentagon (the Pentagon did not respond to my asking whether this arrangement is reciprocal). More broadly, the U.S. is also selling India increasingly advanced weapons and addressing Indian economic concerns as a priority.
Unfortunately, Modi's government is offering very little in return.
True, India is a member of the China-concern focused Quad Partnership, alongside the U.S., Australia and Japan. But unlike the other three members, India does not deploy warships close to China. Similarly, unlike the other three, New Delhi's participation in any conflict with China over Taiwan is very unlikely.
This stands in stark contrast to Modi's generous engagements with Putin. India has refused even to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, including in votes at the United Nations. It has equivocated in response to U.S. requests that it join a G7 effort to impose a price cap on Russian oil exports. (Modi apparently hopes the issue will quietly go away so that he need not say no.) Instead, India is guzzling Russian oil, even as other nations stand in solidarity with Ukraine. And Indian officials continue to flirt with the most ardent anti-American officials in Putin's government, individuals behind some of the most grievous attacks on U.S. interests and citizens.
Put simply, it is absurd to believe that Modi has moved away from Putin. Talk designed only to earn a nod or two from Western elites is very cheap.
After all, Modi publicly hailed his "wonderful" meeting with Putin on Friday. In turn, India's readout proudly declared that "President Putin expressed appreciation for Prime Minister’s video-message at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok earlier this month."
Again, let me know when Modi stops talking and starts acting against Russia and China. Until then, it should be clear to U.S. policymakers that their attempted courtship of New Delhi is very one-sided.